Operation Sindoor Highlights Fragile Nuclear Balance as India–Pakistan Missile Exchange Tests Deterrence Stability

In the only recorded missile exchange between two nuclear-armed neighbours, Pakistan was the first to de-escalate. The region continues to remain one of the most sensitive nuclear flashpoints in the world, with India and Pakistan maintaining near parity in their nuclear arsenals. Pakistan is assessed to possess approximately 170 nuclear warheads, while India is estimated to hold around 172, reflecting a fragile equilibrium of deterrence between the two states.

Pakistan’s nuclear capability is structured around a triad of land, air, and emerging sea-based systems. Its land-based missile arsenal includes short-range systems such as Abdali and Ghaznavi, medium-range missiles including Shaheen-I and Shaheen-II, and longer-range systems such as Shaheen-III and Ghauri. Tactical systems like Nasr provide battlefield nuclear capability, while Ababeel is reported to carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles, according to Pakistani accounts. Cruise missiles Babur-I and Babur-II further enhance precision strike capability.

In the air domain, Pakistan operates Ra’ad-I and Ra’ad-II air-launched cruise missiles designed for deployment from fighter aircraft. At sea, the Babur-III submarine-launched cruise missile extends deterrence into the maritime domain, although the naval component of Pakistan’s nuclear triad remains comparatively limited.

India’s nuclear arsenal is shaped by its doctrine of credible minimum deterrence and its declared policy of No First Use. Its land-based missile inventory ranges from short-range Prithvi-II and Agni-I systems to the intercontinental Agni-V and the developmental Agni-VI. The Agni-P represents a newer precision-strike missile variant. In the air leg, India relies on nuclear-capable aircraft including Mirage-2000, Jaguar, and Rafale platforms, providing flexible targeting capability.

India’s sea-based deterrent remains its most strategically significant component, anchored by submarine-launched ballistic missiles K-15, K-4, and the under-development K-5. These systems are deployed aboard nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines such as INS Arihant, ensuring survivability and a credible second-strike capability.

Both countries’ arsenals reflect divergent strategic doctrines. Pakistan emphasizes tactical nuclear weapons to offset conventional military asymmetry with India, while India prioritizes survivable long-range deterrence systems. Despite these differences, both states recognize the stabilizing effect of maintaining a nuclear triad, ensuring that neither side can contemplate a disarming first strike without the risk of overwhelming retaliation.